Belfast Telegraph

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honestbroker1
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Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:24 am

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunda ... 76016.html
There’s one reason I’m sure Madeleine is alive — a body hasn’t been found,” he said.

“In my experience as a detective, when strangers kill children, or if strangers kill anyone for that matter, they do one thing very quickly and almost automatically — they dump the body of their victim so they’re not caught with it. That’s just the way it works.

“So, without a body, somebody must have taken Maddie away and be keeping her alive.”

Dave’s theory is drawn from the 30 years of experience he accrued in the RUC and Cheshire Police.

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:52 am


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catkins
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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by catkins » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:00 am

Snap HB.....I've just opened a thread in the Madeleine Section. :s_biggrin
Madeleine McCann- Abducted May 2007 from Praia Da Luz, Algarve, Portugal.
DCI Redwood of Scotland Yard - stated that Madeleine could still be found - alive.
https://www.facebook.com/Official.Find. ... ign?_rdr=p

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Carana
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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Carana » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:00 am

honestbroker1 wrote:
Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:24 am
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunda ... 76016.html
There’s one reason I’m sure Madeleine is alive — a body hasn’t been found,” he said.

“In my experience as a detective, when strangers kill children, or if strangers kill anyone for that matter, they do one thing very quickly and almost automatically — they dump the body of their victim so they’re not caught with it. That’s just the way it works.

“So, without a body, somebody must have taken Maddie away and be keeping her alive.”

Dave’s theory is drawn from the 30 years of experience he accrued in the RUC and Cheshire Police.
That may be true in numerous cases, but not always, surely?

There are also numerous cases of murders by strangers who take pains to hide the bodies. In many cases, the murderers may well have quickly dumped a body, leaving deliberate or unintended clues as to the whereabouts, and in others, they may forget where exactly they did so, or the remains subject to scavenging by animals or even property renovations or public works.
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Whiterose
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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Whiterose » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:48 pm

Well Amaral said the ground was too hard and dry to bury a body.
"The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skillful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests."

Epictetus

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Carana » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:02 am

Whiterose wrote:
Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:48 pm
Well Amaral said the ground was too hard and dry to bury a body.
He's said lots of things, and their opposite.

There had been quite a bit of rain on the Wednesday, which would have softened up the ground. On the other hand, if the land around the area is rocky with just a thin layer of top soil then a ground burial would seem less likely.

Apparently, there are countless wells in the area, however, often abandoned...
"A professor of mine used to say 'I have as a pet a coprophagic beetle, who eats only dung. His antennae quiver when he detects the presence of his food.'" - Edison, English-language Wikipedia Admin

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Whiterose » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:03 am

I just remember Amaral saying the ground was too hard to bury his dog.

Yes there are wells around there, or the person could have taken her back to his home if he lived alone.
"The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skillful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests."

Epictetus

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:17 am

Whiterose wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:03 am
I just remember Amaral saying the ground was too hard to bury his dog.

Yes there are wells around there, or the person could have taken her back to his home if he lived alone.
Amaral was plagiarising Harrison. I wrote a blog article about it, way back.

http://amaralfiction.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... arism.html

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Whiterose » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:08 pm

HB you think Amaral quoted Harrison in saying the ground was too hard for a burial?

The man the Smiths saw was heading towards the beach, did he have a boat there? or did he know someone with a boat there? He could easily have hidden Madeleine in a boat, either to pass on to someone else or to get rid of her body in the sea.

I haven't ruled out Jane's man either, to me her sighting and the Smiths sighting of a man sound too similar, how they were dressed, height, age etc. too much of a coincidence to me.
"The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skillful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests."

Epictetus

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by catkins » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:15 pm

The ground down there is fairly solid in my experience.

I agree Whiterose....I don't rule out JTs man either.......that is so the obvious route to take her ....to a vehicle, then the road leads out of the village....onto the main EN125 and away you go...within a couple of minutes.
Madeleine McCann- Abducted May 2007 from Praia Da Luz, Algarve, Portugal.
DCI Redwood of Scotland Yard - stated that Madeleine could still be found - alive.
https://www.facebook.com/Official.Find. ... ign?_rdr=p

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:56 pm

Whiterose wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:08 pm
HB you think Amaral quoted Harrison in saying the ground was too hard for a burial?

The man the Smiths saw was heading towards the beach, did he have a boat there? or did he know someone with a boat there? He could easily have hidden Madeleine in a boat, either to pass on to someone else or to get rid of her body in the sea.

I haven't ruled out Jane's man either, to me her sighting and the Smiths sighting of a man sound too similar, how they were dressed, height, age etc. too much of a coincidence to me.
Amaral read Harrison's report and concocted a cock-and-bull story about his own dog, killed with head-injuries, needing to be buried.

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by Whiterose » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:40 am

honestbroker1 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:56 pm
Whiterose wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:08 pm
HB you think Amaral quoted Harrison in saying the ground was too hard for a burial?

The man the Smiths saw was heading towards the beach, did he have a boat there? or did he know someone with a boat there? He could easily have hidden Madeleine in a boat, either to pass on to someone else or to get rid of her body in the sea.

I haven't ruled out Jane's man either, to me her sighting and the Smiths sighting of a man sound too similar, how they were dressed, height, age etc. too much of a coincidence to me.
Amaral read Harrison's report and concocted a cock-and-bull story about his own dog, killed with head-injuries, needing to be buried.
Did Harrison say in his report the ground was too hard for a burial, I can't remember, will have to have a look.
"The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skillful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests."

Epictetus

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:58 am

Whiterose wrote:
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:40 am
honestbroker1 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:56 pm
Whiterose wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:08 pm
HB you think Amaral quoted Harrison in saying the ground was too hard for a burial?

The man the Smiths saw was heading towards the beach, did he have a boat there? or did he know someone with a boat there? He could easily have hidden Madeleine in a boat, either to pass on to someone else or to get rid of her body in the sea.

I haven't ruled out Jane's man either, to me her sighting and the Smiths sighting of a man sound too similar, how they were dressed, height, age etc. too much of a coincidence to me.
Amaral read Harrison's report and concocted a cock-and-bull story about his own dog, killed with head-injuries, needing to be buried.
Did Harrison say in his report the ground was too hard for a burial, I can't remember, will have to have a look.
This is what Harrison said:
Sub Surface Burial on P D Luz Beach

For Body Disposal Purposes The Beach Can Be Separated And
Discussed Into 6 Areas.

Figure 2.The boulders in the rock falls are too large
to man handle. Vegetative growth suggests rock
falls have been in situ for some time. The low energy
wave action would not move any of the boulders. It
is possible a small child could be secreted amongst
the rocks in natural voids.

Figure 3.The cliff edge at the base of the beach is at
an angle that inhibits soil removal. The shale re fills
any hole dug and is unsuitable to achieve a burial.

Figure4.At the base of the cliff are wave cuts where
the bedrock has been eroded by wave action. Here
sand can be easily dug but after a few centimetres
the digger reaches the bed rock, preventing a
successful burial.

Figure 5.The beach cusps or berms are mounds of
sand made by wind action. These cusps form at the
limit of the tides reach and would only be recovered
in storm conditions. Digging on the cusps is easy but to achieve as
more than a few centimetres depth is very difficult to
the fine sand granules refill the hole


Figure 6.The dark sand in this image shows the
intertidal area. Here digging and burial could
possibly be achieved although it would be through a
mixture of grave1 and water. However any burial
would be quickly exposed by wave action and
ultimately taken into the sea.
And this:
In conclusion there is no intelligence spe?ic to this case or generic datasets
that support a scenario of beach burial. Additionally the digability study and
coastal dynamics of the Praia Da Luz beach further limit this as a viable
scenario. However should further assurance be required I would suggest a
limited inspection around the rock falls at the base of the cliffs' on the beach
and the waters around the rocky outcrop to the east of the beach.

Should the investigators wish to discuss and develop the issues raised in this
assessment I would be happy to do so.
Harrison ruled out burial.

Here, from the penultimate sentence of his final paragraph, is what Harrison thinks may have happened (please God, may he be wrong!)
I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).
Harrison ruled out burial.

Yet Amaral, in his book, quoted Harrison as saying Madeleine was definitely buried (somewhere).

Idiot.

(That's Amaral).

I suppose what, by Portuguese law (it certainly wouldn't by English!) gives Amaral a certain amount of wriggle-room is that his book is supposed to be a snap-shot of the state of the investigation at the point he left it, and, of course, the dogs were brought in as part of a strategy to investigate burial of a body.

All that is true.

But why does that give Amaral licence to mangle and misrepresent what Harrison said?

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:07 pm

And here, from Chapter 7 of the Book of Many Lies is Amaral's account:
I receive a phone call from Sofia, who insists on my going home: our Shitzu dog is dead. She found it that morning, lifeless on the ground, with a head injury. She did everything to make sure the girls did not see it, but she didn't have the courage to remove him. When I arrive, everyone is already in bed. I place the Shitzu in a plastic bag, not sure about where I am going to be able to bury him. The ground is hard here. it's not easy to dig a hole and I hardly have the time for it. I decide to drop his remains into a bin. The animal is small, but he seems to weigh more than usual. I use my car to take her. As I am getting rid of it, I realise just how easy it is to hide a body - and how difficult it is to bury....When I get back, I discuss it with Sofia: she is afraid. She asks me to abandon the investigation and to worry about our daughters rather than other people's. For her, the dog's death is a bad omen. I reply that she is unfair, that her fears are irrational. Justice must be done for Madeleine, as for all other children and adults. It's my duty as a police officer: to seek the truth so that justice may be done.

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Re: Belfast Telegraph

Post by honestbroker1 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:31 am

I wouldn't want to denigrate pits by comparing them with Amaral.

Here is what he says (Harrison said) about statistics:
AMAZING STATISTICS

Great Britain has at its disposal the world's biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.

The figures quoted in the report he hands over give us the shivers. The crimes, including those of a sexual nature, are committed by the parents in 84% of cases; 96% are perpetrated by friends and relatives. In only 4% of them is the murderer or abductor a total stranger to the victim. In this roundabout way, Mark Harrison points out that the guilty party may be a person close to Madeleine, and even her own parents. From now on, we have to explore this track, especially as the others have proved fruitless.
(Goncalo Amaral, the Book of Many Lies).

In an edit, I will add what Harrison actually said about statistical data bases.
Homicide Disposal Datasets

A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.
The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare. This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child
(CATCHEM
Database)
In another section of his report, Harrison did muse, hypothetically, that an area of large, free-standing rocks might have been used to conceal a child.

But it's clear (at least to me) that Harrison, from the outset, fully expected a search of the beach to yield zero results, which it did.

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