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honestbroker1
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For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:07 am

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Last edited by honestbroker1 on Tue May 21, 2019 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:12 am

Chapter 16 of Amaral's book:
After a week of intense work, Harrison presents the results of his study to my coordinating group. Even if we were expecting it, his conclusions confirm our worst fears. The most plausible scenario is the following: there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead, and her body is hidden somewhere in the area around Praia da Luz. He praises the quality of the work carried out by the Portuguese authorities in trying to find the little girl alive. According to him, the time has come to redirect the searches in order to find, this time, a body hidden in the surrounding area.

AMAZING STATISTICS

Great Britain has at its disposal the world's biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.
The facts to follow (more in an edit).


Mark Harrison ruling out burial:

Note, in particular, the part I have emboldened and underlined.

Sub Surface Burial on P D Luz Beach

For Body Disposal Purposes The Beach Can Be Separated And
Discussed Into 6 Areas.

Figure 2.The boulders in the rock falls are too large
to man handle. Vegetative growth suggests rock
falls have been in situ for some time. The low energy
wave action would not move any of the boulders. It
is possible a small child could be secreted amongst
the rocks in natural voids.


Figure 3.The cliff edge at the base of the beach is at
an angle that inhibits soil removal. The shale re fills
any hole dug and is unsuitable to achieve a burial.

Figure4.At the base of the cliff are wave cuts where
the bedrock has been eroded by wave action. Here
sand can be easily dug but after a few centimetres
the digger reaches the bed rock, preventing a
successful burial.

Figure 5.The beach cusps or berms are mounds of
sand made by wind action. These cusps form at the
limit of the tides reach and would only be recovered
in storm conditions. Digging on the cusps is easy but to achieve as
more than a few centimetres depth is very difficult to
the fine sand granules refill the hole


Figure 6.The dark sand in this image shows the
intertidal area. Here digging and burial could
possibly be achieved although it would be through a
mixture of grave1 and water. However any burial
would be quickly exposed by wave action and
ultimately taken into the sea.
Last edited by honestbroker1 on Tue May 21, 2019 12:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:16 am

Here is what Mark Harrison actually said about statistics, in effectively ruling out his own, earlier, hypothetical musing that rocks on the beach might have been used to conceal the body of a small child:

Homicide Disposal Datasets
A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.
The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare. This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child (CATCHEM
Database)

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Re: For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:19 am

And finally, Mark Harrison's, own, tentative view of what might have happened to Madeleine:
I am currently of the opinion on the available information and statistical datasets that if death has occurred, that it is possible that Madeleine McCann’s body has been disposed into the sea at Praia da Luz. (See my second report entitled “NPIA OP TASK Search Doc Beach and Marine”).
All of which puts Amaral's own interpretation of MH's work in GA's book, that I started this thread with, and repeat here, somewhat in the shade:
After a week of intense work, Harrison presents the results of his study to my coordinating group. Even if we were expecting it, his conclusions confirm our worst fears. The most plausible scenario is the following: there is no doubt that Madeleine is dead, and her body is hidden somewhere in the area around Praia da Luz. He praises the quality of the work carried out by the Portuguese authorities in trying to find the little girl alive. According to him, the time has come to redirect the searches in order to find, this time, a body hidden in the surrounding area.

AMAZING STATISTICS

Great Britain has at its disposal the world's biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.
(Goncalo Amaral, The Truth of the Lie)

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Re: For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:55 am

On the work of Grime with his dogs MH said:
During the searches two dogs were deployed and although it has been stated that no physical remains were located in the area these dogs did give indications in several areas. These areas have been subject to a separate forensic examination that is beyond the scope of this report and at the time of writing laboratory tests are being undertaken. The dogs’ handler has submitted a separate report regarding the performance of the dogs (see appendix 4). However, it must be stated any such indications without any physical evidence to support them can not have any evidential value, being unconfirmed indications. Additionally I consider no inference can be drawn as to whether a human cadaver has previously been in any location without other supporting physical evidence.
Effectively dismissing it (the work of Grime).

It is also significant that Mark Harrison felt confident in dismissing Grime's work with his dogs BEFORE the forensic results were known, and (probably) before John Lowe's report was written, let alone released.
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Re: For those who need a helping-hand on Twitter:

Post by honestbroker1 » Tue May 21, 2019 11:57 am

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