What Amaral claims Harrison had to say about statistics:
Great Britain has at its disposal the world’s biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.
The figures quoted in the report he hands over give us the shivers. The crimes, including those of a sexual nature, are committed by the parents in 84% of cases; 96% are perpetrated by friends and relatives. In only 4% of them is the murderer or abductor a total stranger to the victim. In this roundabout way, Mark Harrison points out that the guilty party may be a person close to Madeleine, and even her own parents. From now on, we have to explore this track, especially as the others have proved fruitless.
In an edit, I will add what Harrison actually
said about statistics.
Homicide Disposal Datasets
A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.
The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare. This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child (CATCHEM
Harrison emphatically ruled out
burial after, earlier, hypothetically, musing that large, free-standing rocks on the beach might have been used to conceal a body.
Harrison's (later) reference to statistical data-bases prompted him to all but rule out
Amaral mangled and misrepresented the work of Mark Harrison in a way that assuredly libelled the McCanns.
The other point to note, of course, is that, contrary to Amaral's claim, Harrison didn't consult a UK statistical data base, but one of the FBI.
(The FBI had to figure somewhere, even if it figured nowhere
in respect of the training of Eddie).
OK it does look as if Catchem and SCAS are UK. So it does look as if Amaral got something right.