Amaral and statistics ....

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honestbroker1
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 8:50 pm

Amaral and statistics ....

Post by honestbroker1 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:35 pm

From Chapter 7 of the Book of Many Lies, Amaral says:
AMAZING STATISTICS

Great Britain has at its disposal the world's biggest data bank on homicide of children under five years old. Since 1960, the count is 1528. Harrison is well acquainted with its contents. He often draws information from there which helps him to resolve similar cases. Valuable information can be found there on on various criminal modus operandi, places where bodies are hidden, techniques used to get rid of a body. He relates that on one occasion, thanks to the data, he was able to deduce the maximum distance a body might be found in relation to where the crime had been committed.

The figures quoted in the report he hands over give us the shivers. The crimes, including those of a sexual nature, are committed by the parents in 84% of cases; 96% are perpetrated by friends and relatives. In only 4% of them is the murderer or abductor a total stranger to the victim. In this roundabout way, Mark Harrison points out that the guilty party may be a person close to Madeleine, and even her own parents. From now on, we have to explore this track, especially as the others have proved fruitless.
Here is Harrison, ruling out burial:
Sub Surface Burial on P D Luz Beach

For Body Disposal Purposes The Beach Can Be Separated And
Discussed Into 6 Areas.

Figure 2.The boulders in the rock falls are too large
to man handle. Vegetative growth suggests rock
falls have been in situ for some time. The low energy
wave action would not move any of the boulders. It
is possible a small child could be secreted amongst
the rocks in natural voids.

Figure 3.The cliff edge at the base of the beach is at
an angle that inhibits soil removal. The shale re fills
any hole dug and is unsuitable to achieve a burial.

Figure4.At the base of the cliff are wave cuts where
the bedrock has been eroded by wave action. Here
sand can be easily dug but after a few centimetres
the digger reaches the bed rock, preventing a
successful burial.

Figure 5.The beach cusps or berms are mounds of
sand made by wind action. These cusps form at the
limit of the tides reach and would only be recovered
in storm conditions. Digging on the cusps is easy but to achieve as
more than a few centimetres depth is very difficult to
the fine sand granules refill the hole


Figure 6.The dark sand in this image shows the
intertidal area. Here digging and burial could
possibly be achieved although it would be through a
mixture of grave1 and water. However any burial
would be quickly exposed by wave action and
ultimately taken into the sea.
In a further edit, I will add what Harrison said about statistics,
Homicide Disposal Datasets

A limited search has been conducted of datasets that contain body disposal
data in homicide cases (CATCHEM, SCAS, FBI). Although this search was
limited due to the time constraints placed on this reports delivery an inference
can be gained from both the data sets and the authors own case work
experience. I have also consulted with NPIA and FBI colleagues to benefit
from their experiences.
The conclusion inferred is that beach burial is extremely rare. This should not
surprise us as to dig on a beach is a high risk activity requiring expending time
and energy when a more 'least effort" disposal is readily available, that is
directly into the sea. Of those limited cases that were found to be a beach
disposal the overwhelming majority were surface depositions with only one
recorded concealment using rocks on top of a 2 year old child
(CATCHEM
Database)
Harrison concluded his final report by making plain he had no real clue what happened to Madeleine ....

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